Strategy’s 629,000 BTC stack barely moves price, says treasurer

Strategy’s corporate treasurer Shirish Jajodia claims the firm’s round-the-clock, algorithmic drips “do not move the price of Bitcoin,” even after buying another 430 BTC last week.

How the BTC drip machine works

Strategy now holds 629,376 BTC, worth roughly $73 billion. Buys land almost every hour via multiple OTC desks and dark pools, so single prints rarely exceed 5 BTC.

Jajodia says the team “never chases strength,” instead leaning on volume-weighted average price (VWAP) algorithms that hug the average price over 24-hour windows. The method echoes tactics of large ETF creations, which split blocks to dodge slippage; River CEO Alex Leishman notes many treasuries copy the approach now.

On-chain data supports him: Glassnode shows no abnormal upticks in average transfer size during reported purchase dates. And when Strategy revealed a $51M buy on Aug. 18, BTC had already slipped from $124K to $115K – price moved first, disclosure later.

Open interest around BTC futures still hit $67 billion this month, dwarfing typical spot volume. If a credit squeeze forced Strategy to tap its stack, thin exchange reserves – now under 15% of supply – could amplify moves. Barron’s analysts already flag the stock as a “sell” on that very tail-risk.

Does the BTC market care? JPM, miners, and critics weigh in

JPMorgan research ties Bitcoin rallies to ETF flows and macro liquidity, not single corporate orders. Miners echo that view: Foundry USA’s desk saw no hash-rate spikes around Strategy’s latest fill.

Yet some traders on X still watch Saylor tweets like Fed minutes. Price action tells another story. MSTR shares sank to a four-month low even as Strategy added coins, mirroring BTC, not leading it.

Exchange spreads barely widened during the buy window, a sign that liquidity absorbed the flow. Strategy paid an average $111,827 per coin in July; BTC’s weekly range then ran $112,000–$119,000 – tight enough to hide large clips.

However, Barron’s warns the equity still trades at a hefty premium to NAV, so stock sellers, not BTC bulls, may feel the next pinch.

Bigger picture: what could break the BTC price spell?

Regulation. A sudden rule forcing disclosure of live order flow could hike slippage and wake the tape.

Liquidity crunch. If corporate credit tightens, Strategy might pause buys or, in the worst-case scenario, sell – market depth looks thin.

Sentiment flip. Should BTC crack below $100K, leveraged longs unwind fast; Strategy’s mark-to-market pain could spook copycat treasuries.

Strategy’s stealth-buy playbook shows size need not mean splash: tiny clips, many venues, little drama. Data from exchanges, futures desks, and chain trackers all back Jajodia’s claim that price follows bigger flows, not Saylor’s press releases. Still, leverage and premium valuations hang over the trade. Watch credit markets, ETF inflows, and – yes – the next wallet ping. That’s plenty.